Time Magazine recently ran an article that attempted to educate Americans on how they could survive a natural disaster, however, it was largely ignored, and Americans are still unprepared for a disaster that is inevitable – and this prediction is based on sound scientific theory. Further, there are more large earthquakes occurring all over the world, but most of these never show-up in the MSM, and we need to ask ourselves why? To those of us that track these events, it’s obvious that something huge is brewing, but “what” remains to be seen, but the writing is on the wall, except no one appears to be listening or connecting the many dots that may spell disaster for the American public! The Time article is well worth the read, but what it doesn’t spell-out is that America could very well experience a “China-style” disaster – and we are grossly under prepared to weather such a disaster, even if it was half as bad as what China experienced. We look back at Katrina and groan at FEMA’s incompetence, but the disaster in New Orleans pales in comparison to what may await us on the horizon.

How to Survive A Disaster

By AMANDA RIPLEY

The recent earthquake in China and the cyclone in Burma, not to mention the battery of tornadoes and wildfires ripping through the U.S. this season, remind us that disasters are part of the human condition. We are more or less vulnerable to them, depending where we live.

But survival is not just a product of luck. We can do far more than we think to improve our odds of preventing and surviving even the most horrendous of catastrophes. It’s a matter of preparation–bolting down your water heater before an earthquake or actually reading the in-flight safety card before takeoff–but also of mental conditioning. Each of us has what I call a “disaster personality,” a state of being that takes over in a crisis. It is at the core of who we are. The fact is, we can refine that personality and teach our brains to work more quickly, maybe even more wisely.

We could, for example, become far better at judging threats before catastrophe strikes. We have technological advantages that our ancestors lacked, and we know where disasters are likely to occur. And yet we flirt shamelessly with risk. We construct city skylines in hurricane alleys and neighborhoods on top of fault lines–as if nature will be cowed by our audacity and leave us be. And we rely on a sprawling network of faraway suppliers for necessities like warmth and food. If the power cuts off, many of us still don’t know where the stairs are in our skyscrapers, and we would have trouble surviving for a week without Wal-Mart. Hurricane season starts June 1, and forecasters predict a worse-than-average summer. But for many of us, preparation means little more than crossing our fingers and hoping to live. MUCH MORE

CNN is also chiming in on disaster preparedness, and when our MSM, which often ignores issues that could frighten the public that aren’t terrorism related, people should take note and understand that a catastrophe is in the making, although no one knows (maybe) when and where such a catastrophic disaster could strike! We do know it’s coming, and to survive such a disaster, preparedness is the only answer except those who will be standing on ground-zero:

Commentary: Task as Americans is to be ready for disasters

By Retired Lt. Gen. Russel L. Honoré

(CNN) — The recent series of disasters in the United States and around the world have resulted in the forced evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people from their homes and have again demonstrated with startling clarity that we are living in a new normal.

In this new normal, international interdependencies and instantaneous communications combine to constantly remind us of disaster and terrorism, and disasters that once were considered exceptional now occur more frequently. The recent earthquakes in China and the Myanmar cyclone are but two reminders of such disasters.

The reminders are beamed into our homes and workplaces as if to demonstrate that tragedy that can result if we fail to prepare. What people once viewed as the exception they now see on a routine basis, yet we still don’t take the steps to be prepared for this new normal. MUCH MORE

Disasters can come in many flavors, but the one’s that pose the worst case scenarios are earthquakes and volcanic events, something that the United States is overdue for – and could impact us as soon as tomorrow, or maybe not for another hundred years. But, there is evidence that earthquakes and volcanic activity is on the rise, and the USGS recently released a long-overdue report on the hazards those who live in the western United States face – and their predictions state quite clearly that a China-style disaster could be lurking for those on the West Coast!
This report was released on May22, 2008:

News Release

Disaster Earthquake Scenario Unveiled for Southern California

Scientists today unveiled a hypothetical Scenario describing how a magnitude 7.8 Southern California earthquake —similar to the recent earthquake in China— would impact the region, causing loss of lives and massive damage to infrastructure, including critical transportation, power, and water systems.

In the Scenario, the earthquake would kill 1800 people, injure 50,000, cause $200 billion in damage, and have long-lasting social and economic consequences. This is the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean, and is the scientific framework for what will be the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history, scheduled for November 13, 2008.

The November preparedness exercise, “Golden Guardian ’08,” will test the ability of emergency responders to deal with the impact of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California, and is being jointly organized by the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Office of Homeland Security. The Golden Guardian exercise will occur during a week-long series of public events planned for the “Great Southern California ShakeOut.” A June 4th kick-off event is planned for the “ShakeOut” to help communities plan to respond to the risks highlighted in the Scenario.

The scientific report describing the ShakeOut Scenario, jointly published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey (CGS), will be released today during a Congressional hearing in Washington, D.C. The House Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, led by Chairman Jim Costa (D-CA), will hold an oversight hearing on USGS efforts to prepare for future earthquakes, at 10:00 a.m. EDT in Room 1324, Longworth House Office Building.

Although imaginary, the Shakeout Scenario is based on scientists’ best predictions of what would actually occur during and after a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.

The Scenario outlines a hypothetical earthquake in which:

• The strongest shaking and greatest damage is near the stretch of the San Andreas Fault that extends through the fastest growing areas of Southern California, including the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley.
• At least 10 million people will be exposed to heavy shaking. California’s efforts at mitigation have concentrated on life safety and have been largely successful. Thus, in spite of the large numbers of people in highly shaken areas, deaths are estimated at only 1,800.
• Building types known to be vulnerable to damage and collapse, do indeed sustain major damage. All un-reinforced masonry buildings within 15 miles of the San Andreas Fault are completely destroyed. Those that are not retrofitted kill many occupants. Many other older building types without retrofitting contribute to over $33 billion in damage to buildings.
• The fault offsets all lifelines crossing into Southern California at Cajon Pass (Interstate 15), San Gorgonio Pass (Interstate 10) and along Route 14, including pipelines, power lines, roads, railways, telecommunications and aqueducts.
• Strong shaking continues in downtown Los Angeles for 55 seconds – nearly 8 times longer than in the Northridge Earthquake
• The prolonged, strong shaking heavily damages and sometimes collapses hundreds of old brick buildings, thousands of older commercial and industrial concrete buildings, many wood-frame buildings, and even a few, high-rise steel buildings. Over 600,000 buildings suffer at least some damage that causes tens of thousands of injuries and hundreds of deaths, and leaves many thousands of people without homes or jobs.
• Fire doubles the fatalities and economic losses. Around Southern California, there will be 1,600 fires started large enough to warrant a 911 call, and some fires merge into conflagrations that burn hundreds of city blocks. Assuming no Santa Ana winds, the models still indicate a further $65 billion in direct losses and $22 billion in indirect losses from the fires.
• Nearly two thirds of the hospital beds are non-functional in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. At the same time, 50,000 people will seek treatment at emergency rooms.
• Thanks to a $6 billion investment in seismic safety, the State highway system fares well. However, although collapse is avoided, some bridges are non-functional so that much of the highway is not passable on the day of the event. The long duration of shaking takes a greater toll on bridges and overpasses under the jurisdiction of cities and counties where the retrofitting processes are not complete or have not begun.
• The largest long-term economic disruption comes from damage to the water distribution system. Damage to this system will be so extensive that some areas will have to replace the whole system, and some buildings will be without water for as long as 6 months. The direct and indirect business interruption costs attributed to the lack of water will be $50 billion.
• Most of the damage is predictable and much is preventable. Individuals can protect themselves and help their community by:
- Storing more water than they already have
- Keeping a fire extinguisher and knowing how to use it.
- Securing their space. This means securing building contents from flying around and reinforcing a building they own to the most current standards.

“The planned emergency drill is underpinned by the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean on the ground,” said Dr. Lucile Jones, chief scientist for U.S. Geological Survey’s Southern California Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. “We know this science will help state and local agencies develop comprehensive emergency-response plans that will help us avoid the worst impacts of a major quake.”

The ShakeOut Scenario is the product of an interdisciplinary collaboration of over 300 scientists, engineers, and other experts from several agencies, including the USGS, the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, California Office of Emergency Services and Seismic Safety Commission.

To create the Scenario, geologists determined the amount of potential motion on the part of the San Andreas Fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture, a 200-mile long section from the Salton Sea in the Coachella Valley to just south of Gorman. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking. Engineers and building professionals used the models of ground shaking to estimate damage to the built environment. And from these damages, social scientists evaluated emergency response, casualties, and the impact on our economy and society.

The following scientists and engineers led the development of individual sections of the ShakeOut Scenario. They were responsible for bringing together the appropriate team of experts to analyze that aspect of the earthquake, leading the investigations and ensuring that the final document was written. Each of them can speak to the goals of the Scenario, the main results and the details of their expertise. They can be reached by contacting the USGS. LINK

After reading this report, and the significance of such an earthquake striking California, or even off the coast of Oregon, where there has been significant earthquake activity which has so far remained unexplained, ask yourselves “how” FEMA and the US Military would respond to such a disaster? China, when faced with a catastrophic quake, responded with over 130,000 troops and a disaster response that made our efforts in regard Katrina seem paltry in comparison; but, we have to remember that China has one of the world’s largest militaries who can be activated at a moment notice. We also have a large military, but they are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, as is most of their heavy equipment, so how will FEMA respond to a natural disaster on the level of which occurred in China – who also had to request aid from other countries?

The answer is obvious; if such a catastrophe were to hit the United States, FEMA and our government is woefully under-prepared to deal with its consequences, and the cost in human lives and the blow to our fragile economy would be immeasurable! The USGS insists that earthquakes haven’t really increased, but I beg to differ, and the evidence is at your fingertips if you take the time to do the research. There is a huge increase in the quakes that are occurring in Alaska, and throughout the world; quakes over 6.0 have been increasing, especially in the last few years since the Great Quake that occurred in 2004 off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra that claimed almost 250,000 lives.

In 1996, the frequency of Alaskan quakes were recorded with approximately 350 to 400 “events” per month. In 2008, that number has climbed to an average of over 2,000 events per month, many of them significant and registering over 4.5 on the Richter Scale. Monthly Earthquake Catalogs
from the Alaska Earthquake Information Center. There have also been several quakes that have registered over 6.0 on the Richter Scale, most of which have gone unreported in the American MSM. I did find one that was reported, however, it was reported by The China View, not the American Press:

Strong earthquake strikes Alaska islands

www.chinaview.cn 2008-05-02 11:12:10

WASHINGTON, May 1 (Xinhua) — A strong 6.6-magnitude earthquake struck Thursday near the Aleutian Islands in southwestern Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported.

The quake’s epicenter was 65 kilometers west of Adak, Alaska, asparsely inhabited area near the tip of the Aleutian island chain, the USGS said.

The quake, recorded for 0133 GMT, was at a depth of 10 kilometers, it said. It happened on a chain of more than 300 small volcanic islands, which are earthquake-prone, it added. LINK

Take yesterday for example: There were three earthquakes that registered above 5.8, yet none were reported by America’s MSM. Any quake that is above 6.0 is of significance (IMO), and it is becoming a trend that seems to indicate the “Ring of Fire” is becoming more active, yet little is stated on the news in an attempt to point out the significance of these quakes. These were yesterday’s events:

Magnitude 6.2 – SOLOMON ISLANDS

Magnitude 5.9 – FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

Magnitude 6.0 – FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

As I stated, the USGS states that the frequency of earthquakes is not increasing, however, when you perform your own research, the facts seem to indicate otherwise, as represented in the below graph:

The above graph was found at EARTHQUAKES – WHAT ARE THE LONG TERM TRENDS?, and it’s an article that is well worth the read. I have been researching quakes and volcanoes for two months, and what I’ve found is frightening and fascinating, but I also know that even the experts disagree on almost everything, and the amount of information available is contradictory as well as enlightening. One thing it does prove is that Mother Earth seems to be in a high state of seismic change – and what that means to the residents of countries that border the Ring of Fire and other areas remains to be seen, but it does mean that we should expect the best, but for your own health and welfare, prepare for the worst. Earthquakes are occurring in areas where they have been silent for hundreds of years, and the United States is one country that has so far, been extremely lucky.

Perform some of your own research; the tools are all over the Internet, however, be prepared to shuffle though mountains of data, but when you’re finished, if you come to the same conclusions that I have, it’s time to prepare your families for disaster and don’t count on FEMA or the government to bail you out – as a disaster on the proportions of what we witnessed in China will be a global tragedy, not an event that we in the United States are prepared for or will be able to handle ourselves.

William Cormier

Footnote: Another 6.0 Earthquake struck in Chile just a few minutes ago:

Magnitude 6.0 – WEST CHILE RISE

As I pointed out in Volcanic Activity Appears To Be Working It’s Way Around The “Ring of Fire” UPDATED, these events seem to be working their way towards the Northern Hemisphere, and we need to take these warnings seriously. Just a few days after this article was published, a volcano in Chile, which had been dormant for over 2,000 years erupted, so there is evidence that these predictions are valid!

And today, 6-6-08, there was another 6.0 Quake in INDONESIA:

Magnitude 6.0 – KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA

William Cormier