Update:
This article was originally written to provide a warning to Northern Europe in regard a potentially catastrophic eruption of the Icelandic Katla Volcano. We are providing this update because we believe that it is crucial to provide a warning when the situation at Katla has changed significantly and we are now approaching the upper end of when historical eruptions of the Katla Volcano usually follow an eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull Volcano, which is usually between and year and a year and a half. The last major eruption at the Eyjafjallajokull Volcano occurred on April 14,2010, approximately one year five months ago – and now the situation at Katla appears to be changing.
As stated in the article below, we also believe that Europe’s Mainstream News Media is exhibiting caution in covering these changes because of the financial overtones that would accompany any news of a possible/probable Katla Eruption and its eventual impact on the global economy. We understand those concerns, however, again noting that search information coming into this and other sites are indicating that Europeans are seeking more information in regard this subject indicates that the MSM in the EU is not satisfying the public’s interest for factual updates on the situation and whether or not there is real cause for alarm. (The latter question is unfortunately, unanswerable.) That said, preparation saves lives, and accomplished with safety in mind rather than overacting and thus creating a panic, we believe that it’s time to begin preparing for what may be an inevitable geological event. If you trust the historical records, they, correlated with the recent activity at Katla itself should raise a level of caution to anyone that understands the significance of an eruption of one of Iceland’s most dangerous volcanoes. There are also articles and studies that also point to Katla showing signs of increasing activity, so in this case, let science speak rather than your politicians and financial advisers. Listed below are some of the events that are concerning scientists and those in the public who have actively been monitoring this situation. We also published a recent update that can be read HERE:
For the purpose of making this update as short as possible we are providing links to the Iceland Volcano and Earthquake Blog to detail many of the events that bear consideration:
Minor harmonic tremor in Katla volcano
A ML3.2 earthquake (automatic size) happens in Katla volcano caldera
Inflation starts in Katla volcano
Earthquake swarm in Katla volcano
Increased earthquake activity in Katla volcano during the past year
New harmonic tremors spikes in Katla volcano
This article was posted on September 2, 2011:
Quake-hit Iceland volcano Katla shows strengthening signs of eruption
Iceland’s massive Katla volcano is showing increasing signs of a possible eruption following an intense week of earthquakes and tremors.
The feared volcano was struck by a magnitude 3.2 earthquake last night as experts believe magma is slowly filling inside the mountain, giving rise to fears the volcano could soon erupt.
The latest quake follows a week of increasing activity with official reports of harmonic tremors and earthquake swarms.
Observers have been closely watching Katla since July when the volcano showed the first signs of increased activity.
Last weekend, the Icelandic Met Office confirmed two swarms of earthquakes in Katla and on Wednesday night, a harmonic tremor – a potential indicator to an eruption – was detected.
Last night’s stronger earthquake was picked up in the volcano’s caldera – its magma chamber.
Katla, which has not experienced a significant eruption for 93 years, is the second largest volcano on Iceland and its eruption will be felt across Europe.
Last year, the country’s president Ólafur Grímsson warned “the time for Katla to erupt is coming close, Iceland has prepared and it is high time for European governments and airline authorities all over Europe and the world to start planning for the eventual Katla eruption”. MUCH MORE (Please note that this story does not include recent events as listed above)
For now, there is not a lot of public information available in regard the significance of the aforementioned recent activity at the Katla Volcano. However, for those of you that monitor unusual volcanic activity and believe we are living in an increased period of seismic activity and volcanic activity, this could add further credence to the possibility increased volcanic eruptions, and not just in Iceland:
Increased activity at 22 volcanoes, alert raised
Adianto P. Simamora, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Sat, 09/03/2011 8:00 AM
The government has requested that local administrations remain on the alert for severe risks of volcanic eruptions, as the number of volcanoes showing abnormal activity continued to raise.
As of Friday, activity in 22 volcanoes was categorized as above normal, with six at alert level three and 16 at level two. Volcano status ranges from level one, which is normal, to four, which is the highest alert.
The Volcanology and Geophysical Disaster Mitigation Center (PVMBG) raised the status of Papandayan, one of the major tourist destinations in Garut, West Java, to alert level three on Friday.
“There were 48 shallow volcanic earthquakes detected, with one deep volcanic earthquake and a white cloud emitted as high as 20 meters on Thursday,” National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said. LINK
Remember, the Katla Volcano is nothing to be taken lightly, especially for Great Britain. If you keep following these warning signs which appear to be increasing, keep in mind that you have to study and understand the past in order to predict the future, and even that doesn’t mitigate or change most situations, as we still tend to ignore the constant repetition of history:
Icelandic volcano could bring chaos to British skies for a YEAR
Apr 16 2010 By Mark McGivern
Dr Dougal Jerram, of Durham University, warned a massive Icelandic eruption in the 18th century had resulted in thousands of deaths.
He added: “One of the most influential ever eruptions was the 1783-84 event at Laki in Iceland when an estimated 120million tons of sulphur dioxide were emitted, approximately equivalent to three times the total annual European industrial output in 2006.
“This outpouring of sulphur dioxide during unusual weather caused a thick haze to spread across Western Europe, resulting in many thousands of deaths throughout 1783 and the winter of 1784.”
Iceland sits astride the mid-Atlantic ridge, a major fault-line, just at the point the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates separate. DailyRecord.co.uk (My emphasis)
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For the past few weeks, Alexa.com reports there have been constant searches in regard “increased earthquake activity,” “iceland katla,”and “yellowstone cover up.” In fact, considered as a whole, these are the top search terms that are currently driving approximately four percent ( 4% ) of our overall traffic. Based on the constant searches for these subjects it is obvious that many people, especially Europeans, are extremely interested in the status of Iceland’s Katla Volcano and are attempting to find whatever information they can in regard this extremely dangerous volcano. (I’ve noted that Britain is responsible for approximately 50% of these searches using internal site statistics.)
Unfortunately, as dangerous as this volcano is and its history of erupting within months of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano is disturbing. I find it deplorable that the EU’s respective governments are not attempting to prepare their citizens for what I believe is an eventuality, not a probability. Speaking in terms of probability, history would seem to indicate that the Katla Volcano could erupt relatively soon, perhaps before the end of 2010. Again, attempting to find reputable information in regard the Katla Volcano isn’t easy, however some of it is out there, and to be frank, the future in regard Katla doesn’t look promising at all…
From a political and financial standpoint, it’s understandable that Great Britain and the European Union are crossing their fingers in regard a Katla eruption rather than sounding an alarm. Their collective economies are suffering and a significant Katla eruption could upset the “recovery” and has the potential to kill tens of thousands of European citizens, most likely the elderly and those with chronic or significant health issues.
First, to help evaluate Katla’s possibility/probability/eventuality of an eruption in the near future I’d recommend taking heed of Iceland’s predictions of a destructive volcano that no one is more familiar with its behavior than the Icelandic people and their government which stated:
“Geophysicists at Iceland’s Institute of Earth Sciences say Katla would be locally and globally damaging.
Icelandic President Ólafur Grímsson has warned Governments around Europe that a significant eruption at the volcano is “coming close”. He said: “We [Iceland] have prepared … it is high time for European governments and airline authorities all over Europe and the world to start planning for the eventual Katla eruption.” MORE
Make no mistake, Icelandic government officials are closely monitoring the Katla Volcano and do expect it to erupt in the near future, as do I and most scientists that are intimately familiar with this volcano. Keep in mind that throughout history, Katla has erupted on a timetable of approximately every fifty (50) years; the last time the Katla Volcano erupted was in 1918 so another eruption is long overdue. It is also extremely important to understand that there appears to be a direct relation to Eyjafjallajokull eruptions and the subsequent eruption of the much more dangerous Katla Volcano. In May of this year the BBC published an excellent synopsis of this theory and presented facts that back-up this phenomena:
Could another Icelandic volcano erupt soon?
By Victoria Gill
Science reporter, BBC NewsKatla is Eyjafjallajokull’s more active neighbour, and scientists believe that there may be a link between the two volcanoes.
This link has not been physically proven, explains Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson a geophysicist from the University of Iceland. A circumstantial, historical connection “is putting people’s eyes on Katla,” he says.
“We know of four Eyjafjallajokull eruptions in the past [dating back to AD 500] and in three out of these four cases, there has been a Katla eruption either at the same time or shortly after.
“By shortly, I mean timescales of months to a year. (Emphasis added.)
“We consider that the probability of Katla erupting in the near future has increased since Eyjafjallajokull went.”
Kathryn Goodenough from the British Geological Survey points out that, as yet, there is no physical explanation for this apparent link.
“Scientists don’t yet know what the connection is,” she says.
“But we know there are fissures running between the two volcanoes. And they’re quite close to each other.
“They’re also being subjected to the same tectonic forces. So the chances are that if magma can find a pathway to rise beneath one of them, it can find its way to rise beneath the other.”
Researchers do know that the two volcanoes have separate magma chambers, but many suspect that these chambers are physically linked in some way, deep beneath the surface of the Earth.
Overdue eruption
Katla’s last eruption was in 1918. It lasted for three weeks and up to a cubic kilometre of material exploded through its vent.
“It’s a much more active volcano than Eyjafjallajokull – it has had about 20 eruptions in the last 1,000 years, so it erupts about once every 50 years on average,” says Professor Gudmundsson.
“At first glance people would say it’s now long overdue. But the larger the eruption, the longer the pause (in) time that follows it, and that 1918 eruption was large.”
At the moment, there is no seismic activity detectable underneath Katla that would indicate that magma is moving upward underneath it.
Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office are looking at such signals and updating their website regularly with the seismic data that is being produced.
But Dr Goodenough points out that, with Eyjafjallajokull “we only had a few hours warning”.
“Seismic monitoring does not necessarily give you advance notice of an eruption.” LINK
Editor’s Note: Please be advised that the above are excerpts from what I consider to be an excellent article and contains the learned opinions of many of our best scientists. It is well worth the time to follow the link and read the entire article. Also, I placed the emphasis on the statement that made it clear that “seismic monitoring does not necessarily give you advance notice of an eruption.” As I have pointed out in past articles on earthquakes and volcanoes, most of the time volcanoes do experience seismic activity before an eruption, but not always! My research has demonstrated that approximately ten to fifteen percent of the time volcanoes can erupt with absolutely no warning whatsoever. Please do not be lulled into complacency because there doesn’t appear to be any major seismic activity at Katla.
There is not a lot of continuity in the various articles that describe the Katla Volcano except to describe it as enormously dangerous. The BrisbaneTimes.com.au has stated that Katla erupts on a schedule of roughly eighty (80) years; using their figures, Katla is still overdue for an eruption:
Katla, the ‘witch’ volcano, looms over Iceland
The frightening reputation of Katla is mirrored in a savage landscape of black volcanic ridges, blue ice, and snow swept and hardened by powerful winds.
The worry for Icelanders is that each time Eyjafjoell has erupted over the last millennium, Katla, named after an Icelandic witch, quickly followed.
“There have been three Eyjafjoell eruptions and Katla has followed each time,” said geophysicist Sigrun Hreinsdottir, at the Earth Sciences Institute. “They are very close.”
Some believe the volcanoes are directly linked underground so that magma from one can flow into the other. Hreinsdottir said that what happens inside volcanoes is largely a mystery.
What’s known is that Katla has erupted approximately every 80 years since Vikings first settled this island nestled under the Arctic Circle more than a thousand years ago.
The last eruption was in 1918 and “it’s the longest pause of Katla on record, which is why we are monitoring it very carefully,” Hreinsdottir said.
An eruption from Katla might not necessarily be dangerous. But it has the potential every time to repeat the 1918 scene when a wall of melted glacier water swept down, bearing ice chunks the size of houses, and blanketing southern Iceland in thick ash.
What effect a monster eruption would have on a Europe crippled by the much milder Eyjafjoell can only be imagined. Much would depend on wind direction, the type of ash and height of the ash plume. MUCH MORE
Even though I understand some of the news media’s reluctance to report on any activity at the Katla Volcano, there are people, ThePoliticalBandit included, outside of the Mainstream News Media that have been actively tracking Katla, Hekla, and other dangerous volcanoes in Iceland, and yes, there has been some seismic activity. I prefer to use MSM news sources as they tend to galvanize the public into action, but in regard the Icelandic Volcanoes it appears that our news media in Europe and the United States have adopted the attitude that if they don’t report upon what I believe is an active threat the public will simply forget about it; failing to talk about this threat is also not good for business and the EU Recovery.
Based on my reluctance to use sources other than the MSM, I’d be irresponsible if I didn’t publish an excellent piece that comes from the ModernSurvivalBlog.com that visually demonstrates seismic activity that is originating from Katla’s Caldera:
Katla Volcano Caldera Earthquakes 2010-September
The Katla volcano located in Iceland, lies beneath the Myrdalsjokull glacier and is located next to its little sister volcano, Eyjafjallajokull, which erupted earlier this year on 14-Apr-2010.
Historically, Katla has always erupted not long after Eyjafjallajokull, the longest span being 1.5 years and the shortest time span being approximately 6 months. As of this post, 5 months have gone by since the clock started ticking so lets have a look at what has happened at Katla during that time.
The image above just shows earthquakes that have occurred at or within the caldera itself. I have been casually tracking the Katla volcano since 17-May of this year, so this data tracks the 4 month period since then. During that time I have identified 58 earthquakes at the caldera. Also during that time I have identified 307 earthquakes at Katla including the region outside of the caldera, but still on the Katla volcano itself.
The following image “should” be an up to date current view of the caldera earthquakes:
I am focusing on the caldera because apparently many of the other earthquakes, particularly those just outside the western rim of the caldera, are being caused by seasonal glacial water runoff stresses and are not themselves indicators of potential magma movement. There are a few technical papers written on that subject, and the explanation made sense having read them.
The caldera has an area of about 42 square miles (108 square kilometers) and is about 6 x 9 miles across (10 x 15 km).
I am attributing the earthquakes that are shown here on the west caldera rim as being associated with the seasonal glacial water stress factors, because when looking at the larger map, you can see that the earthquakes continue on to the west as described in the technical papers.
That leaves three areas of interest: the northeast rim, the southeast region, and central-northeast region. The location of the 1918 eruption is in the southeast region while the location of the 1715 eruption is in the central-northeast region. I don’t have the data or the tools to show depth and 3-dimensional renderings of the earthquakes (I am not a vulcanologist, but an interested observer of geophysical events), but I’m sure that would be telling in some way.
The conclusion is that Katla has not yet concluded this portion of its history. The frequency of earthquake occurrence has been fairly constant with a few fits of exciting higher amounts once in a while. One of the real clues will be when the number of earthquakes begin to rise significantly, as what typically happens prior to any eruption. LINK
Editor’s Note:The information and data contained in the above post by The Modern Survival Blog is excellent and correlates well with our own research. They are much more visual in their presentations, a talent I have yet to master – so Kudos to Lauren & Ken who are middle aged hard working Americans. This Blog contains excellent information on Icelandic Volcanoes and is worth visiting.
Yes, there has been activity at the Katla Volcano, however, based on what we know about volcanoes in general, the aforementioned seismic activity may or may not indicate that Katla is readying itself for an eruption. To us, the stronger indication that Katla will soon erupt is based on historic data and documented past eruptions that always seem to closely follow an Eyjafjallajokull eruption, usually within a few months but seldom longer than a year. There is one documented eruption of Katla that occurred 1 1/2 years after an Eyjafjallajokull eruption, but that was the exception, not the “rule” or data set that we have been analyzing. If anything, increased seismic activity at Katla only adds further evidence that the Katla Volcano is extremely likely to erupt in the near future – and to survive a major eruption of Katla, or even the Hekla Volcano, disaster preparation is the key, and if your country is not reacting to the lessons of history and are ignoring the Katla danger, said preparations will have to be the responsibility of those who believe history rather than politicians. If you wish to keep an eye on seismic activity at the Eyjafjallajokull, Katla, and Hekla volcanoes I am posting a visual link to real-time quake activity in the specific area where these volcanoes are located. Please keep in mind that this link only holds 48 hours of data, so at times it may appear OK and at other times will show several quakes:
Mýrdalsjökull – earthquakes during the last 48
hours
Please note that the above information is provided by the Icelandic Meteorological Office, a source that I believe is beyond reproach.
So, what do you do if Katla or Hekla erupts and it occurs with little or no warning?
First and foremost, today or tomorrow at the latest, go out and purchase surgical masks that will help to stop volcanic ash from entering your lungs. These masks can be considered to be dual-purpose; if they aren’t needed for volcanic ash, if and when we are presented with a long-overdue pandemic you will already have some protection for another up and coming disaster scenario.
If you home has a slanted roof, make sure that you have easy access to said roof and you own snow shovels to get that ash off of your roof as quickly as possible. (Volcanic ash is extremely heavy and build-ups on your roof can and will cause it to collapse.) The Katla and Hekla Volcanoes are extremely dangerous and do have the potential to spread ash over Great Britain and possibly some areas of Europe, and in much higher concentrations than the Eyjafjallajokull Volcano did which primarily disrupted air travel. There is no modern data that indicates what the health issues that a major eruption of Katla could have upon the European community; keeping in mind that Katla is at least ten (10) times more dangerous than Eyjafjallajokull, if not more, preparing for such a disaster is inexpensive and could help to save the lives of those with chronic health problems, the elderly, and those who have to venture outdoors during periods of heavy ash fall without breathing in dangerous volcanic ash.
One more issue needs to be considered. None of us are aware of how “major” an eruption or how long such an eruption of the Katla Volcano will last. If it is a long-term eruption and there is significant ash fall in Britain and other areas, it will very likely compromise local water supplies. Add to your list fresh drinking water stored in plastic containers with a small amount of bleach added to ensure that it will remain safe to drink. As long as you’re storing the essentials make sure that you have enough food to last at least a month. With air travel likely being shut-down and the possible contamination of local crops, storing an adequate emergency food supply is simply insurance that in the event of most disasters/emergencies, your family has a better chance of survival than those who didn’t bother to prepare for what seems to be an inevitable event.
Other Relevant Articles:
Increase Of Earthquakes And Volcanic Activity Are Caused By Climate Change
Locals Believe Iceland’s Katla Volcano Will Erupt In Five Days, And They Could Be Correct – Updated
Japan’s 7.0 And Chile’s 8.8 Earthquakes – Are They Related? Can we expect more?
CNN Oversimplifies The Danger of Yellowstone National Park
William Cormier says: I have waited and waited, and when I read the news, we...